Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park, MD-4:00 AM EDT Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Valid 12Z Tue April 29, 2025 - 12Z Thu May 01 2025
Strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the interior Northeast into the Ohio Valley later today into this evening
.An episode of heavy rain is expected to bring flash flooding concern across the south-central U.S. through early Thursday... An elongated low pressure system is currently moving fairly quickly eastward across the upper Great Lakes into southern Canada. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms forming ahead of the trailing cold front will continue to advance eastward through the remainder of the Great Lakes today before sweeping across the Northeast tonight. Daytime heating under a warm southwesterly flow across the eastern U.S. today will promote more active formation of thunderstorms especially over the interior Northeast later today into the evening hours when the dynamics associated with the cold front are forecast to be the most vigorous. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains as high as an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather for the interior Northeast into the Ohio Valley through tonight with high winds and hail being the primary threats. The front is expected to clear the entire Northeast by Wednesday morning, ending the threat of severe weather as gusty westerly winds usher much cooler and drier air from the Great Lakes into the Northeast ahead of a high pressure system. The high pressure system will continue to settle into the Northeast, bringing a chilly and dry morning into the region by Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, the trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front is forecast to stall across the southern Plains through tonight before beginning to lift northeastward on Wednesday as a warm front. An episode of heavy rain is expected to impact areas from northern Texas into a large portion of Oklahoma toward the mid-Mississippi Valley as the front remains nearly stationary. Given the already saturated grounds from recent heavy rainfall, and the potential for an additional 2 to 4+ inches of rain, the Weather Prediction Center maintains a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall for portions of the aforementioned areas through Wednesday. Numerous instances of flash flooding are possible by later today, some of which could potentially be significant. On Wednesday, the focus for significant heavy rain and flash flooding shifts only slightly east from the southern Plains toward the western Ozarks of Arkansas where another day of a Moderate Risk highlights the concern for numerous instances of flash flooding due to repeated training of strong to severe thunderstorms for these areas. The SPC maintains a slight to enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms. By later on Wednesday into Thursday morning, a low pressure wave is forecast to form over the southern Plains and then track toward the Midwest, ending the threat of severe weather across the southern Plains as scattered shower and thunderstorms expand into the Midwest and Ohio Valley ahead of a warm front.
The Pacific Northwest will see the latest round of unsettled weather entering the region today before spreading into the northern Rockies in the form of wet snow for the higher elevations on Wednesday. The wet snow in the mountains and lower elevation rain will dip into the central Rockies and the Great Basin by early Thursday morning behind a cold front and a developing low pressure wave over the central High Plains.
A strong ridge of high pressure extending across much of the central/eastern U.S. will bring well above average warmth to much of the region through midweek. Forecast highs in the 70s and 80s will be common, including for more northern locations like the Midwest and Northeast ahead of the cold front. Temperatures will begin to return back closer to average over the West today, with highs generally ranging in the 60s and 70s, with 80s into the Desert Southwest. Overall near average temperatures continue for the West on Wednesday with above normal temperatures continuing for much of the East. The exceptions to the warmth will be an influx of chilly air in the wake of the cold front across portions of the Great Lakes and interior Northeast.
Kong/Miller
Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
